NFL coaches are making a costly mistake with overtime decisions, and Sean McDermott's fate may be a cautionary tale. McDermott's Buffalo Bills won the coin toss but chose to go on defense first, a move that backfired when the Denver Broncos scored on their first possession, while the Bills had only one possession. This strategy is flawed under the new overtime rules, where the logical decision is to receive first. The data shows that teams getting the ball first have a higher chance of winning, with nine wins, seven losses, and one tie in a limited sample size. This is a stark contrast to the old rules, where kicking first was the safer choice. Chicago Bears coach Ben Johnson made a similar mistake, going on defense first and losing to the Rams. The key is to understand the advantage of receiving first, as it allows teams to see what the opposing team does and adapt their strategy accordingly. This approach is supported by the fact that the team that got the ball first won six times, lost seven times, and tied once in the regular season. While there are exceptions, such as the Seattle Seahawks' successful two-point conversion, the overall strategy of going second is risky. The issue is further exacerbated by the kickoff rules, which often place teams deep in their own territory, making it harder to score. Punting, on the other hand, can pin the opposing team inside their own 10-yard line. Coaches need to adjust their strategies to take the ball first in overtime to avoid costly mistakes and potential job losses.
