The US military's potential arsenal for a new strike on Iran: A strategic analysis
The recent mass protests in Iran have sparked renewed tensions, with President Trump threatening military action. This article explores the potential targets and strategies the US could employ in a new strike, considering the complexities and risks involved.
The Targeted Approach: Precision and Civilian Impact
Analysts suggest that any US strike in support of Iranian protesters should focus on command centers and facilities linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Basij forces, and the Iranian police. However, these targets are often located within densely populated areas, raising concerns about civilian casualties.
Carl Schuster, a former US Navy captain, emphasizes the need for precision: "Whatever the US does, it has to be very precise with no non-IRGC casualties." Any attack causing civilian harm could backfire, alienating the very protesters the US aims to support.
Strategic Targets: Leadership and Financial Assets
Peter Layton, a visiting fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute, suggests targeting Iran's top leadership indirectly. Given their past attacks on Iranian military and nuclear scientists, Iran's leaders have become adept at dispersing and hiding their assets. Hitting their homes and offices could send a message, but the military value is limited.
Layton also proposes targeting the financial interests of the leadership and IRGC. With the IRGC controlling a significant portion of Iran's GDP, attacking specific commercial businesses and money-making enterprises could weaken the regime economically.
Precision Strikes: Cruise Missiles and Drones
Analysts recommend using precision-guided weapons like cruise missiles and drones. Cruise missiles, such as the Tomahawk and JASSM, can be launched from submarines and ships, minimizing US casualties. Drones are also considered effective, as crewed aircraft may be deemed too risky.
Logistics and Timing: A Dramatic and Swift Response
The US military's options are limited due to the absence of an aircraft carrier in the region. Any strike would likely originate from airbases in the Persian Gulf or farther afield. The timing of the strike could be indicated by the movement of tanker aircraft and strike aircraft closer to Iran.
Layton predicts a dramatic and swift response from the Trump administration, similar to last year's strike on nuclear facilities. He suggests targeting oil facilities in the Persian Gulf as a quick and effective option, causing economic damage to Iran in the medium to long term.
